Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 960 has rotated around the west limb. The visible solar disk is now spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a single period of minor storming at mid latitudes as the solar wind speed increased to about 550 km/s due to a recurrent coronal hole rotating into geoeffective position.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods on 15 June due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 16 – 17 June.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Jun 069
• Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 20/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/01/01