Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 892 (S07W70) produced low level B-class flares early in the period. Other numbered regions have been quiescent during the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed increased from 400 km/sec to a maximum of 550 km/sec late in the period, this coinciding with an anticipated recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible on 15 June due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Jun 075
• Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-005/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01