Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 14, 2005
Filed under , ,

 Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 775 (N09W59) produced
two C-class flares, a C4.2/1f at 0730 UTC and a C7.4/Sf at 1548 UTC.
LASCO imagery showed an asymmetric full halo CME associated with
the C4.2 flare.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M-class flare from Region 775 or 776

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A minor
transient from the CME seen on 12 June was observed by ACE at 1750
UTC, followed by an increase in solar wind speed from 450 km/s to
550 km/s. However, Bz remained stable at +/- 5 nT. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
may be expected on 15 June due to the effects of today’s shock
passage. Isolated minor to major storming is possible on 16 and 17
June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and the
effects of today’s full halo CME.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

  • Class M 20/20/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Jun 094
  • Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 095/095/090
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 017/033
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/015-010/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.