Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jun 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jun 14 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Infrequent C-class activity
occurred, from Region 634 (N13E60) and newly numbered Region 635
(S08E70). These two active centers dominate an otherwise dull
visible disk. Region 634 is 350 millionths in white light area. The
limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
with some chance of an isolated M-class flare from either Region 634
or 635.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Gusts of fast solar wind
reached 550 km/s as a high speed stream began to affect the
magnetosphere midway through the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. Coronal
hole effects are anticipated to linger through 17 June.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
- IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Jun 100
- Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 105/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 003/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 009/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
