Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
New Regions 1254 (S22E59) and 1255 (N17E45) were numbered overnight
and are classified as Cro-beta and Axx-alpha type groups
respectively. Region 1254 produced a few B-class flares but all
other regions on the disk have been quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with isolated C-class activity likely for the next three days
(15-17 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
due to residual effects from the CH HSS. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods on day one (15 July) as effects from the CH HSS
subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three
(16-17 July).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 094
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01