Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 July 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
July 14, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1087 (N20E08) produced
two C-class events. The first was a C1 flare at 14/1230Z and the
second was a C3 flare at 14/2047Z. 1087 is a Dso group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration and has shown little change in
areal coverage and spot number during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The solar wind monitor on
the ACE spacecraft indicated a sector boundary crossing into a
positive sector at approximately 14/0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
on day one (15 July) due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet
conditions are expected to return on days two and three (16-17
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 078
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/05/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

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