Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (15-17 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. In particular, active periods were observed from
0000-0600Z due to intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (-9 nT)
accompanied by a coronal hole high-speed stream. The average speed
of the high-speed stream was about 530 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to decline to quiet levels and remain quiet for the next
three days (15-17 July).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 067
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 013/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01