Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The recurrent coronal hole high speed stream remained geoeffective. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from approximately 650 km/s to 730 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled on Day 1 (15 July), becoming quiet on Day 2 (16 July). Activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on Day 3 (17 July).

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Jul 066
• Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 010/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 008/010-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

• A. Middle Latitudes
• Active 15/05/15
• Minor storm 05/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/10/20
• Minor storm 05/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01