Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 15 0100 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to active. A single period of minor storming occurred at high latitudes between 14/1800Z and 2100Z due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE reached a peak of 561 km/s at 14/2121Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 July. Quiet conditions are expected on 16-17 July.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Jul 076
• Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 006/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01