Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jul 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jul 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at high levels this period. Region
786 (N12W97) continues to be very active as it rotates around the
west limb. Two major events occurred from this region today. The
first was an M9 x-ray event with a 220 sfu Tenflare at 14/0725Z. A
CME was observed on LASCO imagery in association with this event. A
considerably more powerful, long duration X1 proton flare occurred
at 14/1055Z. Strong radio emissions accompanied this flare including
a 3400 sfu Tenflare, a 120,000 sfu burst at 610 MHz, and a Type IV
radio sweep. A very bright and fast (approximately 1430 km/s) halo
CME was observed on LASCO imagery. The remainder of the solar disk
and limb was quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, although there is still a chance for another major flare
from Region 786 as it rotates around the west limb. Low to very low
conditions are expected on 16 and 17 July.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed remains
elevated near 500 km/s, but is declining. The most disturbed
geomagnetic periods occurred between 14/0100 – 1300Z when the IMF Bz
was predominantly southward. A slow, gradual rise in the greater
than 10 MeV protons began soon after yesterday’s M5 event. The 10
pfu alert threshold was finally reached at 14/0245Z. A second,
larger influx of high energy protons followed today’s X1 flare. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux were still slowly increasing at
issue time, and the peak flux so far is 53 pfu at 14/1905Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next
three days. Occasional major storm periods are possible at high
latitudes. At least three CMEs from the M1, M5, and X1 events on 12,
13, and 14 July respectively, are expected to generate the storm
periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress
is expected to continue through 15 July. Assuming no new injection
of particles, this event will likely end by 16 July.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

• Class M 50/20/10
• Class X 10/01/01
• Proton 20/10/05
• PCAF In Progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Jul 090
• Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 085/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 020/030
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 025/025-025/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 50/50/40
• Minor storm 30/30/20
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/45/40
• Minor storm 35/35/25
• Major-severe storm 20/20/10