Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jul 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
July 14, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 409 (N15E55)
produced several C-class events through the period. The largest was
a C8 flare at 14/0120 UTC which was optically correlated with the
SXI imagery. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. Region 409 has the potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active through the period.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible with the passage of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Jul 127
  • Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 130/130/125
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 018/018
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 020/025-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.