Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jul 2003
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 409 (N15E55)
produced several C-class events through the period. The largest was
a C8 flare at 14/0120 UTC which was optically correlated with the
SXI imagery. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. Region 409 has the potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active through the period.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible with the passage of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Jul 127
- Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 130/130/125
- 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 018/018
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/25
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 25/25/25
- Major-severe storm 15/15/15
