Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jul 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jul 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E12)
produced numerous B- and C-class flares again today. A slight
growth of penumbral coverage was observed today in white light
analysis. The dominant intermediate spot continues to show delta
magnetic characteristics along with a weak secondary delta spot just
to the northwest of it. A re-emergence of a single alpha spot was
seen in Region 28 (S16W40). Region 29 (S14W29) continues to decay.
New Region 34 (S20E05) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. There is a chance that Region 30 could produce
another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels through
day one. Days two and three may experience periods of active
conditions due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 144
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 008/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
