Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare was observed at 14/1318Z from new
sunspot Region 1401 (N15E73). Three other new regions were numbered
in the past 24 hours, Region 1399 (S24E69), Region 1400 (S14W04),
and Region 1402 (N26E75). Even though Region 1401 and 1402 have just
rotated onto the visible disk, imagery and data from the STEREO B
spacecraft has shown these regions are active.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for more M-class events for the next three
days (15 – 17 January), as Regions 1401 and 1402 continue to rotate
onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next two days (15
– 16 January). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected
on day three (17 January) as a coronal hole high speed stream
becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 132
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 004/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01