Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Old region 1138 (N12, L=323),
which has yet to rotate onto the visible disk, produced a long
duration C1 x-ray event at 14/0330Z associated with a CME off the
northeast limb. Region 1145 (N16W25) redeveloped spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (15 – 17 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at mid-latitudes between 14/1500 – 1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 January)
as the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) become geoeffective. Quiet levels are expected on days two and
three (16 -17 January) as effects from the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 079
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01