Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE reached 750 km/s during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels with isolated storm periods at high latitudes on Days 1 and 2 (15-16 Jan). The high speed stream is expected to depart on Day 3 (17 Jan) and activity levels should diminish to quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Jan 076
• Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 075/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 009/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 014/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 014/015-012/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/15
• Minor storm 20/20/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01