Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 938 (N02E48) produced several minor B-class flares today and is the only spotted region currently on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 15 January. Active to minor storm conditions are possible on 16 and 17 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Jan 082
• Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 001/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 006/010-015/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/25
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/35/30
• Minor storm 10/20/15
• Major-severe storm 01/10/05