Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 14, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13E10)
produced an M1.8/Sf flare at 14/1411Z and an M1.5 flare at 14/1757Z.
Region 718 (S05W06) produced an M1.0 flare at 14/1606Z. Region 720
has increased in area to 1540 millionths and is a beta delta
magnetic class. Region 718 has also increased in area to 250
millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 720 is capable of producing multiple
M-class events and possibly an X-class event. Region 718 has also
shown the capability of producing M-class events.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed
at ACE has decreased to approximately 560 km/s during the reporting
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

  • Class M 85/85/85
  • Class X 25/25/25
  • Proton 10/10/10
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Jan 130
  • Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 135/135/140
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.