Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jan 2003
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 242 has now rotated
around the west limb near S07, but continues to be quite active. It
was the likely source of several small C-class flares and was
responsible for today’s largest event, a C6 flare at 14/0636Z. The
largest region on the disk is Region 255 (S13W12). This region’s
close proximity to Region 251 (S14W05) adds complexity, but activity
this period was limited to occasional fluctuations in the plage
field. A large prominence eruption off the SE limb was observed to
begin at around 14/1700Z. New Regions 258 (N07E56) and 259 (N13E72)
were numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a thorough analysis, but
limb activity was considerable over the past few days in the
vicinity of these newly numbered regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a slight chance for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at higher latitudes. A period (04-12Z) of mostly southward
orientation in the IMF was responsible for the more disturbed
periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Jan 164
- Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 160/160/155
- 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 02/02/02
