Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (15-17 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (15-17 February).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 107
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01