Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate Region 1158 (S21W14)
produce an M2/1N flare at 14/1745Z associated with a 150 sfu
Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1479 km/s).
Region 1158 also produced seven C-class events the largest being a
C9 at 14/1253. This region continued to grow throughout the period
and is currently magnetically classified as a Beta-gamma type
spotgroup with an area of 450 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for an M5 or greater x-ray event for days
one thru three (15-17 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A sudden impulse was
observed at 14/1600Z (12nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Solar wind data from the ACE satellite indicated a
shock arrival at 14/1456Z. Solar wind velocities increased to
approximately 410 km/s and total field increased to around 20 nT
following the shock. The source of today’s activity is likely an
east limb event that occurred at 11/2146Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods on day one (15 February). There is a slight chance for
isolated minor storm periods on days two and three (16-17 February).
The increase is forecast due to the expected return of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream and the arrival of a CME from
yesterday’s M6 event.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 113
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01