Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Feb 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
February 16, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. An increase in temperature, speed, and density were observed in ACE solar wind measurements around 14/0300Z indicating a co-interaction rotating region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Interplanetary Bz fluctuated between +13 to -14 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions for 15 February. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16 February. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for 17 February as the coronal hole high speed stream subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Feb 070
  • Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/003
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 012/018
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/015-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/05
  • Minor storm 15/10/01
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/10
  • Minor storm 15/15/01
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/01

SpaceRef staff editor.