Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed remains in excess of 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with possible isolated active conditions, 15 – 16 February due to the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. On 17 February conditions are expected to abate to quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Feb 071
• Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 072/072/072
• 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 008/010-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/35/30
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/40/35
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05