Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares have been observed over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Feb 077
• Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 075/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 001/001
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 005/005-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01