Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Feb 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Feb 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity continued low. Region 734 (S05E04)
produced a C1 x-ray flare at 0408UTC. Region 733 (S09W13) generated
a C1 x-ray flare with Type II at 1158UTC. Although quiet, Region 735
(S08E20) grew in white light, now measuring over 400 millionths. The
remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at GOES was high again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A slow, faint CME was seen by
LASCO midway through 13 February, associated with a flare from
Region 733. Should that CME affect the magnetosphere, it is not
anticipated to be significant, late in the interval.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Feb 118
• Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 120/120/115
• 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 005/008-005/010-005/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05