Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 14, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 14 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 554 (S09W13), the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk, is a D-type group with a
simple beta configuration. This region remains stable with no
significant changes or activity noted this period. New Region 559
(N07W42) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 554.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed
remains elevated following the onset of a high speed coronal hole
stream on 12 February. Solar wind speed averaged 620 km/s this
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes. The coronal hole high speed stream in effect now is
expected to continue through 16 February. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected on 17

III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Feb 104
  • Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 105/100/100
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 016/021
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 012/020-012/020-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/20
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.