Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were numerous C-class
events during the past 24 hours; the largest was a C7 at 1459Z from
Region 1367 (S18, beyond west limb). GOES SXI imagery showed that
Region 1367 was responsible for the other C-class events during the
period as well. Region 1374 (S18W11) continues to be the largest
group on the disk but was stable and quiet. New Region 1377 (N11E43)
was assigned and appears to be a small, D-type sunspot region. A
coronal mass ejection was noted from the west limb at about
14/0412Z; disk imagery indicate the source region was near the limb
and the CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (15-17 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet tomorrow (15 December) but there is a
possibility for some brief unsettled periods due to a glancing blow
from the CME/DSF that occurred on 11 December. Quiet levels are
expected to prevail for 16-17 December.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 132
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 130/128/126
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05