Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A 12 degree long filament,
centered at N24W68, erupted and was observed by ground-based
observers and in SDO/AIA 171 imagery lifting off the disk at
14/1449Z. Simultaneously, a long duration C2.3/Sf flare was observed
in Region 1133 (N15W61) at 14/1550Z. An associated CME, visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, was seen lifting off the northwest limb at
14/1536Z. The CME did not appear to be earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event all three
days (15-17 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as a coronal hole high
speed stream continued to influence the magnetosphere. Solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 450 km/s at the beginning of
the period to approximately 650 km/s at forecast time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected be quiet to unsettled for days 1 and 2 (15-16 December) due
to the continued influence of coronal hole high speed streams. Day
3 (17 December) is expected to bring a return to quiet conditions as
the influence of coronal hole high speed streams wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 090
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 088/088/086
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 007/007-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01