Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Today’s activity
consisted of a few low-level B class events. New Region 1035
(N31E07) emerged on the disk today and is a simple bi-polar group.
Region 1034 (N20E03) was quiet and appears to be decaying slowly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (15 – 17 December).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 079
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 080/082/084
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01