Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 978 (S09W40) produced several low-level C-class x-ray flares during the past twenty-four hours. The region has decayed in white light area, and is now in a beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels. Region 978 has the potential of further C-class activity, and a slight chance of an isolated low-level M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels for the forecast period (15 to 17 December). On 15 December expect conditions to continue at quiet levels. 16 December should see a slight increase in activity to include unsettled conditions. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to impact the geomagnetic field on 17 December. Active to minor storm periods at middle latitudes, and major storm conditions at high latitudes, are expected with this coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Dec 092
• Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/005-008/010-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/30
• Minor storm 05/10/25
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/20/40
• Minor storm 05/15/25
• Major-severe storm 01/05/15