Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 14 2253 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Dec 2006
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SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S05W47) continues to exhibit a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The region is showing a possible gradual separation of penumbra in its Delta area.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remains a possibility.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field reached major to severe storm levels. The ACE satellite observed the shock from the 13 December CME at 14/1356 UTC. A sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 14/1416 UTC with a deviation of 26 nT. Periods of major to severe storming occurred between 14/1200 UTC and 14/1800 UTC. Solar wind speed is currently 900 km/s. A 100 MeV proton event commenced at 13/0300 UTC, reached maximum at 13/0525 UTC with 88.7 pfu and ended at 14/1150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event that started 13/0310 UTC is still in progress with a current level of 21.7 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels for 15 December. This activity is due to the CME observed on 13 December. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for 16 and 17 December.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec

• Class M 60/60/60
• Class X 35/35/35
• Proton 99/30/30
• PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Dec 093
• Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 040/070
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 040/045-012/020-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/30/30
• Minor storm 20/15/15
• Major-severe storm 50/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/35/35
• Minor storm 25/20/20
• Major-severe storm 60/10/10