Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 14, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels. Only three
regions are on the solar disk. None have significant potential for
solar activity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole is progressing beyond geoeffective range. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm until the end of the 15th, falling off to quiet to
unsettled levels for the 16th and 17th.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Dec 092
  • Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 020/028
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 020/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/30/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.