Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 August 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N22W19) produced
the largest event of the period, a C3/Sf flare at 14/0031Z. An
Earth-directed, partial-halo CME was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery beginning at 14/0130Z with an
estimated plane-of-sky speed of 436 km/s. An additional
Earth-directed, partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery beginning at 13/1325Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 606 km/s. This CME was associated with a C2
flare at 13/1240Z with associated Type II (estimated velocity of 736
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps from Region 1543. Region 1543 showed
little change and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
The remaining spotted regions were stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (15 August). Quiet to
unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions are
expected on Day 2 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August CME.
Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
conditions are expected on Day 3 (17 August) due to effects from the
14 August CME.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 106
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 005/005-007/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/15