Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 August 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The largest X-ray
enhancement of the past 24 hours reached B9 level around 14/1030Z
originating from an area near the northeast limb. There are
currently no spotted regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (15-17 August). There is a chance for a
C-class X-ray event throughout the period with the new region on the
northeast limb being the most likely source of activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations of the
solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated speeds
reaching up to 500 km/s, consistent with a high speed stream from a
favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled with a chance for active
periods due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 088
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01