Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 August 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
August 14, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N18W58) produced a
C4/Sf flare at 14/1005Z with an associated CME. The STEREO-A
spacecraft observed a full-halo signature first visible on COR2 at
14/1109Z. A Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 406 km/s) was
also observed with this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today. The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit
exceeded threshold at 14/1230Z with a peak flux of 14 pfu at
14/1245Z. The event ended at 14/1410Z. The source is believed to be
region 1099.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. The
increase in activity is in response to a coronal hole high-speed
stream on days one and two (15 – 16 August). The activity on day
three (17 August) is in response to the CME observed on 14 August.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 085
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 007/008-010/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/40
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.