Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Aug 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (15-17 August).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was initially at high levels but dropped below threshold at 14/0240Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (15-16 August). A small increase to quiet to unsettled is expected for the third day (17 August) in response to a recurrent solar sector boundary crossing.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Aug 066
• Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/15
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/20
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05