Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next two days (15 – 16 August) as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 17 August.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Aug 069
• Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 008/008-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/25
• Minor storm 05/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01