Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 14, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region
656 (S13W35) produced multiple M-class flares today. There were two
major flares reported during the period, an M7/2n event at 14/0544Z
and an M5/2n occurring at 14/1343Z. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts
several CMEs that all appear to have a solar westward component.
This region continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
structure with some decay in the sunspot area seen over the period.
The remaining active regions were quiescent throughout the period.
No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing
further major flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 13/2200Z that is presumed
to be from the faint halo CME that was observed late on 10 August.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period. Isolated active conditions are possible late on 16 and
through 17 August due to glancing blows from the CME activity seen

III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug

  • Class M 75/75/75
  • Class X 20/20/20
  • Proton 15/15/15
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • bserved 14 Aug 149
  • Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 150/145/145
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 010/010-012/015-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/30/25
  • Minor storm 05/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.