Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Aug 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Aug 2003
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S13E03)
continues to produce low level C-class flares and is showing a nice
sigmoid feature on SXI imagery. The magnetic delta structure remains
evident in the northwestern quadrant of spot cluster. The remaining
active regions have been quiescent throughout the period. Region
433 (S23E18) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Sustained
periods of southward Bz during night side regions allowed for active
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the interval. A
brief geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream should make way
for active conditions on the first two days of the forecast period,
returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on day three of
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Aug 130
- Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 130/135/130
- 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 015/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/016
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 015/020-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/15
- Minor storm 15/15/01
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/35/20
- Minor storm 20/15/05
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01