Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels during the past 24
hours. Occasional C-class flares occurred. The largest was a C4/Sf
flare at 14/0527Z from Region 1193 (N16E58). The majority of the
flares were observed from Region 1193 and Region 1190 (N13W14).
Region 1190 increased in area and complexity and is classified as an
Eki-beta group with 37 spots. Region 1193 showed a slight increase
in areal coverage. Region 1186 (N22W33) showed an increase in areal
coverage as well as spot count. Region 1194 (S32W42) was numbered
today as a Bxo-beta group with 2 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (15-17 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(15-17 April).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 119
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 125/128/130
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01