Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Apr 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Apr 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours. New Region 990 (N26E20) was numbered today. The magnetic polarity (negative leader, positive trailer) of Region 990 is consistent with a new cycle sunspot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Apr 069
• Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 006/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01