Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Apr 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
April 14, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
752 (N01E43) showed slight growth during the period and a weak gamma
magnetic structure is visible in the central sunspot cluster. This
region was limited to low level B-class flare production. Region
754 (S08E51) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 752 is complex enough to generate a
C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated
levels are due to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 15 April as the geoeffective high
speed stream wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Apr 085
  • Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 018/026
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 020/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 010/012-005/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.