Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 September 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single unsettled
period was observed at high latitudes between 13/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods on day one (14
September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods
at high latitudes, are expected on days two and three (15-16
September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 069
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 007/007-007/010-008/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01