Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S09W80) produced multiple B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a B7 flare at 13/0416Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (14-16 Sep). Isolated active conditions are possible on 16 Sep as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Sep 083
• Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 082/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01