Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A new spot group emerged and
was numbered Region 1320 (S22W39). There are currently ten numbered
regions, several producing C-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event over the next 3 days (14-16
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (14 October). Conditions are
forecast to increase to quiet to unsettled conditions with the
chance for active periods on days 2 and 3 (15-16 October) from
anticipated CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 138
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/40/40
Minor storm 01/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05