Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (14 October). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on days 2 – 3 (15
– 16 October) as an equatorward extension of the northern crown
coronal hole begins to influence the field.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 070
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 070/070/072
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01