Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1005 (N26E13) was stable and quiet with no flares observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind velocity, as measured at the ACE satellite, continued at elevated levels averaging about 500 km/s, and indicated the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 14 October. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 15 – 16 October.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Oct 071
• Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 072/073/075
• 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 010/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 007/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01