Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed started to increase late on 12 October due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream, and continued to rise throughout the reporting period. At time of issue, the solar wind speed was approximately 520 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on 14 October due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect mostly quiet to unsettled conditions on 15 – 16 October.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Oct 073
• Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 072/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 015/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 015/015-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/20/10
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/15
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01