Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Oct 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Oct 13 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No active regions appear on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions are possible on 15-16 October as a coronal hole associated solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Oct 078
• Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/010-008/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/25
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/35
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05