Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Oct 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The few spotted
regions on the solar disk remain stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The solar
wind speed has shown a slow steady increase during the period from
around 300 km/s to current velocities of 500 km/s and the Bz ranged
from +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14 October. Active
to minor storm conditions are expected on 15-16 October with the
arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Oct 094
- Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 095/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 012/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 015/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/30/30
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/45/45
- Minor storm 15/25/25
- Major-severe storm 10/15/15
