Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S23W24) produced
the only C-class x-ray event of the period, a C1.3/Sf at 13/1128Z.
Associated with this event were radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz.
An eight degree filament with east-west orientation disappeared
from the disk near N31W09 around 13/06Z. A halo CME became visible
on LASCO C2 at 13/11Z and on C3 and STEREO coronagraphs by 13/21Z
with an earth sided trajectory. This event is believed to be
associated with the DSF at 13/06Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a C-class x-ray event likely for the next 3 days (14-16
November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions on day 1 (14 November). Conditions are forecast to be
mostly active with the chance for minor storming on days 2 and 3
(15-16 November), due to the expected arrival of a combined shock
from multiple CMEs observed on 11 and 12 November.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 085
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-018/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/50
Minor storm 10/45/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/50
Minor storm 10/50/30
Major-severe storm 05/20/15